A Peril to Pluralism? How Political Crimes Undermine Descriptive Representation.

• In Event: Institutions and Inclusion (Virtual)

Abstract

How do crimes which target political candidates undermine democratic representation? A growing literature in the field of development studies assesses the consequences of politically motivated crime (PMC) on the quality of democracy. Recently, PMCs have started to emerge across established democracies as well, but little is known about their consequences for descriptive representation. We propose that candidate characteristics matter. Ethnic-minority and female candidates are more likely to withdraw when targeted crimes occur. But if legislators react differently to such attacks based on non-political traits, candidate plurality and democratic representation are threatened. To study this relationship, we draw on a novel panel data set of PMC-incidents in Germany between 2015 and 2019 - a period of intensifying political polarization. Using a difference-in-differences design, we demonstrate that political crimes directly influence the candidate selection process. The results emphasize how political crimes pose a challenge to established democracies by obstructing fair representation at the local level.

Authors

• Jeyhun Alizade, Princeton University

• Fabio Ellger, WZB Berlin Social Science Center

• Marius Kilian Grünewald

• Thomas Tichelbaecker, Princeton University