Examining the Link Between COVID19 & Voting Behavior Among Racial Groups in 2020

• In Event: COVID-19 and the Racial Politics of a Pandemic

Abstract

How did COVID-19 impact the voting behavior of minority voters in 2020? Since the start of the outbreak, immigrants and communities of color have faced substantial inequalities in COVID-19 cases and deaths across the country, which would suggest alignment with candidate Biden’s campaign messaging about COVID-19 control approaches. However, some members of these group are also more likely to be small business owners or employees of small businesses who have been hammered by the closures of non-essential businesses. This economic vulnerability may have led to support for the Trump platform, which focused on opening up of businesses. This context motivates our assessment of the impact COVID-19 among minority voters in 2020. Making use of the American Election Eve Poll (N=15,200), we examine the extent to which experiences with COVID-19, ranging from illnesses and deaths to economic losses, impacted the turnout rates and vote choice of Latino, Black, Asian American and Pacific Islanders, and American Indian voters. Preliminary results suggest that President Trump’s campaign was hurt by his poor performance addressing COVID-19, as his vote share was 15% lower among survey respondents for whom the Coronavirus was one of the most important issues in 2020. Conversely, for Latinos and Native Americans job loss due to COVID-19 did in fact lead to greater support for President Trump; this effect was small and specific to these two groups. The findings of our analyses provide a valuable addition to the literature on public opinion and vote choice across racial and ethnic groups in the presidential election that had the largest voter turnout in U.S. history.

Authors

• Gabriel Sanchez, University of New Mexico

• Jason L. Morin, California State University, Northridge

• Barbara Gomez-Aguinaga, University of Nebraska Omaha