Non-State Actor Alliances: Al-Qaeda and the Taliban as Persistent Partners

• In Event: Internal and External Bargaining Among Rebel Groups

Abstract

Non-state actor battlefield coalitions are rarely studied despite their importance in contemporary wars. The structure of such coalitions, their operations, and their cohesiveness have profound consequences for post-conflict resolution. To address this significant gap in the literature, I advance a framework to understand variation in the structure, capability, and cohesion of coalitions comprised of non-state actors. Among the key elements considered are the existence and involvement of third-party (state and non-state) patrons of the coalition partners, the degree to which the coalition partners are dependent on each other for logistical and operational capabilities, the dynamics of competition among local non-state actors, and the coalition partners’ post-war political goals. I explore my framework with an in-depth case study on the current war in Afghanistan. Using primary source U.S., Taliban and al-Qaeda documents detailing al-Qaeda-Taliban dynamics, I find that there is important variation in localized al-Qaeda-Taliban coalitions in Afghanistan along all four dimensions. Particularly salient is that both groups are reliant on one another for military successes, including for pressuring the government in Kabul and battling other militant organizations such as the Islamic State. Pakistan is key political actor in Afghanistan including influencing the Taliban-al-Qaeda nexus. While the Taliban and al-Qaeda have divergent overarching organizational goals, their local political and military goals in Afghanistan often converge. As such, the Taliban has strong motivation to cooperate with al-Qaeda. These findings provide strong reasons to suspect that the Taliban will not uphold agreements with the U.S. to surrender al-Qaeda, as certain Taliban factions have critical military dependencies on al-Qaeda.

Author

• Barbara Elias, Bowdoin College