De-escalating Conflict in a Pandemic: A Field Experiment in the Philippines

• In Event: Climate and Health Challenges to Conflict Prevention

Abstract

In conflict zones, local community leaders often lack trust in state institutions and are unwilling to cooperate with government efforts in a wide range of areas, including service-delivery, disaster response, and conflict prevention. Because local elites serve as the main interlocutors between community members and the state, low buy-in from elites can foster cycles of poor service provision and low government legitimacy. Employing a randomized field experiment across 800 villages in a conflict-affected region of the Philippines, we test whether state security forces-sponsored monthly meetings between civilian agencies and village leaders can incorporate these local elites into mainstream politics. We present initial evidence suggesting that the outreach program fostered cooperation between village elites and government agencies during the Covid-19 pandemic: the program increased the probability that village leaders provided time-sensitive pandemic risk information critical to a regional Covid-19 Task Force by 20 percent. Using a survey administered via mobile phone, we provide evidence for several mechanisms shaping this change in behavior. Finally, using a range of behavioral measures, we present longer-term effects of the program on security outcomes and local leaders' actions vis a vis the government.

Authors

• Renard J Sexton, Emory University

• Dotan A Haim, Florida State University

• Nico Ravanilla, University of California San Diego