Democratic Backsliding: Linking Globalization & Democratic Institutional Strength

• In Event: Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy and Democratic Backsliding

Abstract

Over the past decade, democracies around the world have faltered as democratically elected executives take increasingly bold steps to manipulate institutions to consolidate their power. Initially these instances of democratic backsliding appeared to be largely confined to new and developing democracies, but more recently there is evidence that even mature democracies are susceptible. Although research on regime outcomes is extensive, it is dominated by theories of democratization and autocratic reversion, or cases where democracies fail and are replaced by autocracies. However, in the post-Cold War era, total democratic collapse has become exceedingly rare; instead, it is more common for democracies to experience democratic backsliding. Democratic backsliding occurs when elected officials weaken or erode institutional checks on executive power and the strength of the opposition, resulting in an illiberal or diminished form of democracy, rather than autocracy.

Despite the emergence of this new type of regime outcome, definitions of this concept vary widely and there is no existing variable designed specifically to measure backsliding. Therefore, this paper begins by proposing a theoretically grounded conceptualization of democratic backsliding, and then builds on this definition to develop and validate an original, Bayesian latent variable to capture backsliding cross-nationally and over time. Although the resulting indicator, the Democratic Institutional Strength (DIS) index, draws on institutional features commonly used to capture regime type, the DIS index is a more comprehensive measure of the range of institutions that can be targeted by officials in cases of backsliding.

In addition to lacking a variable designed specifically to capture backsliding, we also have few theoretical frameworks to explain its growing prevalence. Recent research on democratic erosion focuses heavily on describing backsliding and linking it to populism, or alternatively on identifying potential sources of ongoing democratic decline, such as growing economic inequality, increased political polarization, and rampant nationalism. Implicit in many of these arguments is the role of globalization, yet the specific mechanisms linking globalization to democratic backsliding and domestic institutional shifts have neither been outlined theoretically nor tested empirically. Building on the proposed definition of backsliding and the DIS index, this paper explores the challenges that aspects of globalization, including growing economic interdependence, membership in international organizations, and the judicialization of international politics have created for democratic governance, accountability, and legitimacy to develop an international-level explanation for the ongoing global crisis of democracy.

Author

• Anna M. Meyerrose, Princeton University