A-Bomb for the People: Domestic Drivers of Nuclear Latency

• In Event: Novel Survey Experiments in Nuclear Politics

Abstract

Determining whether to pursue a nuclear program is a major decision for state leaders. In the past, some leaders have kept their nuclear plans secret while others have cued the public to favor a nuclear program. Recent research even suggests the public could play a constraining role in nuclear decision-making. To date, there is little research on the effects of leadership cues in the nuclear realm. We theorize that in states where the public has received strong pro-nuclear cues, the nuclear program will receive widespread support and it will be more difficult for any future leaders to take actions that undermine the program. We test this expectation using an original survey experiment on leadership cues. This work helps explain when and how domestic publics can affect the trajectory of their states’ nuclear programs by examining how public opinion helps determine when latent states choose to pursue strictly peaceful nuclear energy, and when they choose to military applications instead.

Author

• Ariel F.W. Petrovics, University of Maryland