Retaliation Risk, Strike Justification, and Public Support for Nuclear Use

• In Event: Novel Survey Experiments in Nuclear Politics

Abstract

What determines public support for the use of nuclear weapons in conflict, and are Americans deterred by nuclear retaliation? A wave of recent survey experiments in international relations has illuminated the conditions for public (dis)approval of nuclear weapon use. Scholars now understand how concepts like collateral damage and international norms may affect public perceptions. However, the literature predominantly focuses on public opinion regarding the nuclear-armed United States seeking revenge against non-nuclear adversaries. We attempt to provide a clear test of how direct nuclear threats to respondents and their loved ones, and non-revenge justifications for using nuclear weapons, affect public sentiments. To do so, we conducted a survey experiment on a nationally representative sample of the U.S. population. Our findings have several implications for improving scholarly understanding and analysis of most-likely cases of nuclear crises.

Authors

• David Minchin Allison, Yale University

• Stephen Herzog, ETH Zurich