How Election Outcomes Influence Voter Emotions

• In Event: Innovative Approaches to Understanding Voter Preferences

Abstract

How do election outcomes influence voter emotions? Although this question has been extensively studied in the context of the 2016 US Presidential election, a comparative assessment of this question remains absent. To fill this gap, we take a big-data approach. Specifically, utilizing the reaction features of parties’ Facebook pages, we trace how the emotional responses of the supporters of winning and losing parties change before and after the election. Analyzing 54 presidential races in 48 countries between 2016 and 2020, we show that “surprising” results, as measured by opinion polls and the closeness of the election, induce particularly strong shifts in “Love” and “Angry” reactions among party followers. We also examine how the two-round system and the ideological polarization of candidates magnify emotions expressed on parties’ Facebook pages.

Authors

• Christopher Lucas, Washington University in St. Louis

• Jacob M. Montgomery, Washington University in St. Louis

• Taishi Muraoka, Washington University in St. Louis

• Margit Tavits, Washington University in St. Louis