Long-term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Perspective

• In Event: The Role of Public Opinion in International Conflict

Abstract

A large literature examines how public attitudes on conflict resolution react to the conflict’s events, particularly violence by the adversary. However, most studies emphasize short-term or cross-sectional effects, overlooking their temporal dimension. We suggest that violence typically affects attitudes immediately but temporarily, consistent with short-term emotional responses to palpable threats. By contrast, non-violent events signaling the adversary’s intentions can have a lagged but longer-lasting influence on public attitudes, implying deeper belief updating processes. Using a unique monthly dataset of surveys conducted in Israel over two decades (2001-2020), we demonstrate that the long-term trajectory of aggregate public opinion about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been driven not by violence itself but by non-violent signals of Palestinian preferences, particularly failed negotiations and hawkish leadership selection by the latter. These findings elucidate the temporal nature of public attitudes in conflicts and stress the underdiscussed importance of non-violent signals about the adversary for advancing resolution.

Authors

• Alon Yakter, Tel Aviv University

• Liran Harsgor, University of Haifa