Transnational Shocks and Sectarian Attitudes in the MENA

• In Event: New Political Science & Religion and Politics Virtual Poster Session
  In Virtual Poster Session: Religion and Politics Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Despite a growing body of analyses on sectarian tensions in the MENA, few have examined the evolution of public opinion towards Shia and Sunni individuals in the past decades. The paper examines the impact of three regional shocks i.e., the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War, and the Arab Spring on the Arab attitudes towards Shia Muslims in the Sunni majority countries. Drawing from statistical analysis of a time series data in the MENA, the paper compares the impact of regional shocks with domestic determinants of the sectarian attitudes. The results indicate while the 2003 invasion of Iraq exacerbated the sectarian attitudes in the Middle East, the 2006 Lebanon War tempered the sectarian rift in the region. The impact of the Arab Spring is mixed and inconsistent across country cases. Public attitudes towards Shia Muslims align with the past relationship with regional players. Although the Arab spring fueled the negative sentiments towards Shia Muslims in the regional allies of Saudi Arabia, countries with stronger ties with Iran favor Shia Muslims more after the Arab Spring. The analysis further reveals the impact of Sunni countermobilization on anti-Shia attitudes through Salafism and media campaigns in the Saudi allies.

Author

• Alireza Raisi, Northeastern University