How Do Protests Work for Democratization? Evidence from Arab Spring in Egypt

• In Event: Political Behavior in the Middle East

Abstract

Existing literature has been debating over the impact of protests on citizens' support for democracy during and after democratic transitions. In this article, I reconcile this debate by introducing citizens' prior perception of democracy in the authoritarian era in a Bayesian learning model. I posit: (i) protests can enhance people's support for democracy only among those who favor democracy less in authoritarianism; (ii) for those who held more pro-democracy attitudes before democratization, the deteriorating effects of protests on perceptions toward democracy will dominate; (iii) the deteriorating effects of protests will be further amplified when the election results fail to meet people's expectations. I find empirical support for my theoretical claims using matched survey data in Egypt from 2008-2014 with a difference-in-difference(DID) approach. My findings highlight the dynamic role of protests on people's attitudes towards democracy.

Author

• Wenting Xu, University of Chicago