Austere Populism: Opposition to Debt Accumulation in Mexico During the Pandemic

• In Event: Sovereign Debt, Public Perceptions, and Global Norms

Abstract

In previous global economic crises, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) objected to fiscal stimulus on the grounds that rising deficits would lead to excessive growth in sovereign debt. By contrast, during the economic crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the IMF has encouraged many governments to increase spending and worry about deficits later. While most governments have followed this prescription and have issued more debt to finance spending, some have resisted. This paper focuses on the surprising case of Mexico, where the government of left-wing populist, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has counterintuitively resisted the IMF’s advice to increase public spending. Our study draws on original, nationally representative, survey data from Mexico that was fielded during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine how IMF criticism, ideology, partisanship, and economic self-interest shape individuals’ preferred fiscal policy response to the crisis and their evaluations of the government’s management of the pandemic.

Authors

• David A. Steinberg, Johns Hopkins University

• Daniel McDowell, Syracuse University