Recruits and Bystanders: How Potential Supporters Evaluate Armed Groups

• In Event: The Structure of Armed Groups

Abstract

Competition between factions plays a major role in how armed movements behave: how they use violence, how they bargain, and whether they succeed. However, armed groups typically compete over two distinct types of people: potential recruits, who might actually take up arms, and potential supporters, who provide public legitimacy and assistance. How do these two pools of potential supporters, facing different risks and rewards, decide which armed organization to support or join? Leveraging original conjoint survey experiments in three conflict regions in Northeast India, this paper compares the preferences of potential recruits and supporters. The survey included nearly 400 potential recruits, young men interviewed in public locations known to be militant recruitment sites, as well as more than 100 potential supporters, older men in similar locations. The survey included a conjoint survey experiment testing which factors potential recruits value in deciding which group to join and which factors potential supporters value in deciding which groups to support. The results suggest that potential recruits care more about the military strength and discipline of an armed organization, while potential supporters value its social and economic connections. The results suggest that competition over potential recruits and supporters create contrasting incentives for armed groups, which helps to explain contradictory theoretical and empirical findings on rebel competition and behavior. It also evaluates the utility of civilian surveys in conflict zones as a proxy for rebel recruitment and support.

Author

• Kolby Hanson, Naval War College