What Are You Doing Here? Voter Demographics, Identities and Group Sentiment

• In Event: Political Psychology and Race

Abstract

Research has shown that elections and referenda can realign, polarize groups and even create new group identities. However, research on the explicit mechanisms of how post-election identity change unfolds is rare. I argue that the clustering of socio-structural groups in electorates is an explanation for how identities change after elections on the one hand and, on the other hand, how and identity conflicts might spillover to other issue areas that are not directly related to the election. To test this argument, I use a survey experiment. In the experiment, subjects from Italy and Austria are asked to indicate their vote preference in a hypothetical national referendum about leaving or remaining the European Union. A random subgroup of subjects is presented with fictitious information about the voting behavior of the low social status group (the unemployed). Specifically, subjects in treatment condition 1 (2) are informed that a large share of unemployed voters has voted in line with (contrary to) a given subject's pre-treatment vote choice. I examine how the different treatment conditions impact the identification with Europe and the nation, on the one hand, measuring changes in identification with the identities mostly related to either of the vote choices. Additionally, I test if observing the unemployed in one's own or in the opposing electorate respectively changes individuals' feelings of closeness to and preferences regarding the unemployed. Therefore, I am analyzing how preferences on the EU translates into sentiment towards a group and in this case social policy preferences.
In sum, this paper contributes to the political psychology literature by contributing to the debate if self-identification with a political entity - in contrast to a political party - can be influenced by observing if a low-status group embraces the own or the opposing group.
Furthermore, this paper aims to demonstrate how different issues become connected as they reveal descriptive political preferences of certain demographics. Thus, this paper also contributes to the literature on how elections interconnect identities.

Author

• Ronja Sczepanski, ETH Zurich