Selective Accountability: Varying Responsiveness to Minority Student Performance

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Abstract

A growing body of research examines how voters hold accountable local governments (Arnold and Carnes 2012; Hopkins and Pettingill 2018), with a significant strand focusing on electoral accountability of schools (Payson, 2016; Howell and Perry, 2004; Oliver and Ha, 2006; Kogan et al. 2016). To date, research has found mixed evidence for retrospective voting in these elections. In one camp, Payson (2016) finds some evidence of retrospective voting in elections that are held concurrently with presidential and midterm elections. Moreover, Holbein (2016) finds that turnout increases when school performance declines. However, Kogan et al. (2016) find that the poor performance of schools had no discernible effect on the electoral fortunes of school board members. Meanwhile, other projects have come to more nuanced conclusions, with retrospective voting occurring when the public is primed to think about school performance measures via news coverage (Howell and Perry 2004).

Other research highlights that turnout in local elections is much lower than state and federal elections, which is largely attributable to the fact that local elections are often held off-cycle (Anzia 2013). In those local elections, turnout is typically concentrated among groups with more privilege—the wealthy and individuals who own homes. Beyond class, local elections are also shaped by race, as Hajnal explains: “[T]here is a considerable gap between the vote of the white electorate on the one hand and the vote of the black, Latino, and Asian American electorate on the other” (Hajnal 2009, p. 42). This suggests that the individuals who are most likely to participate in local elections are more likely to be White and wealthier than the electorate as a whole.

Given that those who participate in local elections are likely more privileged and disproportionately White, we posit that these individuals retrospectively vote based on the performance of White students in their district, as opposed to all students in the district. Specifically, these voters will be more likely to hold elected officials accountable for the success (or failure) of White students in the district. In contrast, we expect that voters will not hold officials accountable for the successes (or failures) of Hispanic and Black students in the district. Moreover, we expect this effect will be particularly pronounced depending on election timing. That is, we will be most likely to see White student performance affect incumbent reelection when it is an off-cycle election. Conversely, voters will be more responsive to minority student performance in presidential and midterm elections, as turnout increases and minority voters become more likely to participate.

Using California Elections Data Archive (CEDA) and California Department of Education Data (CDE), we test traditional theories of retrospective voting employing measures of school performance. In previous studies, scholars oftentimes used outcomes or scores from the whole district. In this analysis, we utilize multiple metrics readily available to voters in these elections--student test scores by race and ethnicity as well as graduation rates by race and ethnicity. Our preliminary analysis yields strong evidence that voters hold school board members accountable for the performance of White students, but are unresponsive to students of color. Overall, we contribute to the retrospective voting and urban politics literature by testing theories of retrospective voting in an environment where it is most likely to occur. This research has broad implications for electoral accountability and race in the United States.

Authors

• Scott J Hofer, St. Francis College

• Yeaji Kim, California State University, Dominguez Hills

• Markie McBrayer, University of Idaho