Defense Policy Implications of the Near-Crisis Findings

• In Event: Crisis Escalation and Prevention

Abstract

The 2019 National Military Strategy of the United States emphasizes the dangers of rapid crisis emergence and escalation and the need for early warning of such processes. The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) calls for a “competitive mindset” that will enable the Joint Force and its inter-agency partners to “out-think” and “out-maneuver” revisionist powers, rogue regimes, and violent non-state actors. It places a premium on deterrence, and if deterrence fails, it demands the ability to dominate any adversary in any crisis situation. This paper explains how findings from research on near-crisis behavior might help policy analysts and decision makers better anticipate the conditions that increase the likelihood of crisis emergence and escalation, thus enabling a more rapid response to potentially dangerous situations. It will also provide insight into the strategies that might be more successful as policymakers work to shape the strategic environment and deter conflict.

Author

• Scott A. Silverstone, United States Military Academy