Analyzing the Effects of a Switch to By-District Elections in California

• In Event: Institutions and Inclusion

Abstract

Literature finds that an underrepresented group’s comparative share of the population may moderate the effects of the California Voting Rights Act of 2001 on descriptive representation. Little attention has been devoted to the potential mechanisms driving these effects. Previous research suggests that electoral influence, conceptualized as an underrepresented group’s relative size in a given political unit, can lead to an increase in turnout and subsequent descriptive representation. This paper leverages ecological inference with nearest-neighbor matching and difference-in-differences methods to determine whether increased electoral influence following a switch from at-large to by-district elections as a result of the CVRA increased turnout among underrepresented groups. In my analysis, I find initial evidence suggesting that there is indeed a causal link between a CVRA-induced change in electoral institution and a reduction in the turnout gap. I do not find evidence to support my hypothesis that an increase in relative group size leads to a decrease in the turnout gap. I also do not find evidence to support my hypothesis that the effects of a switch to by-district elections on the turnout gap are more pronounced in cities where a minority group is a higher than average share of the total population. Instead, I find evidence that the treatment effects are more pronounced in cities where Hispanics are a lower than average share of the total population. In this work, I have explained potential explanations for my findings and discuss potential areas for future research.

Author

• Zachary Lorico Hertz, University of Chicago