Leaders & Leverage: How Organization Design & Leader Transition Shape Terrorism

• In Event: Radical Extremism

Abstract

What effect does a leadership transition have on the amount of violence produced by terrorist organizations? We argue that the amount of violence used by a new leader is dependent upon two factors – the means by which the previous leader left and the structure of the organization. We contend that new leaders in decentralized organizations – regardless of transition type – will always engage in more violence than their centralized counterparts. This occurs for two reasons: first, leaders have to demonstrate resolve to an external audience. Second, within the group, lower-level subordinate commanders hold a lot of power. Their connections to resources and constituencies independent of the overall leader increases their importance to the overall organization, thus making it important for the new leader to curry their favor. In centralized organizations, we expect the death or capture of a predecessor to lead to greater violence than in regular transitions. This occurs again because of the need to show resolve to outsiders, but not due to internal pressures. The vulnerability of subordinates to the leader in this case means that the leader can be more restrained in the use of violence. This theory is tested on a dataset of terrorist leaders. Findings indicate support for our assertion - that effect of new leaders on terrorism is dependent on the organization’s structure as well as how the past leader was removed from power.

Authors

• Stephen C. Nemeth, Oklahoma State University

• Brian Lai, University of Iowa