Testing the Effect and Causal Pathway of Elite Cues on Global Warming Attitudes

• In Event: Elite Rhetoric

Abstract

Although majorities of Americans believe that global warming has been happening and poses a threat to humans and the economy, significant portions of the American public remain skeptical on climate change. This paper explores whether elite cues from prominent Republicans expressing “green” stances (supporting action to address climate change) reduce this skepticism, and seeks to identify the causal pathway through which attitudes change. We propose competing hypotheses regarding the mechanism through which elite cues change the opinions of co-partisans. On the one hand, cues sent by partisan elites may influence public opinion directly, since co-partisans trust the views expressed by their party’s leaders. On the other hand, they may influence public opinion indirectly by increasing the perception that Republicans in the general public favor action on climate change. A vast literature on descriptive social norms suggests that, when members of a group come to view a particular opinion or behavior as expected of group members, individuals will more readily endorse the opinion or adopt the behavior. For example, when Republican politicians voice support for climate action, they may be sending cues about what Republicans in the electorate believe is correct course of action. In an experiment embedded in six online surveys of American adults (N= 8,617), participants were exposed either to a treatment video of Republican party leaders supporting climate action, or to an irrelevant control video. The experimental results and a meta-analysis of the 6 studies show evidence of a small but robust effect for elite cues on individual beliefs about the dangers of global warming among Republicans and independents. Structural equation modeling shows that these cues change public opinion indirectly by changing public perceptions of where Republicans in the general public stand on the issue.

Authors

• Jared McDonald, Stanford University

• Jon A. Krosnick, Stanford University