Religion and Electoral Predictions: The Case of the 2019-2020 Israeli Elections

• In Event: Surveys and Measurement of Religion

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate religious voters’ confidence in election predictions. Considering the well-established relationship between religion and future-oriented confidence within the psychology literature (e.g., Mattis et al. 2004), as well as the recognized relevance of such confidence on political behavior (e.g., Glazier 2015; Harris 1994), it is surprising that research has not yet investigated the influence of religion on confidence about political predictions. Confidence, defined as individuals’ certitude about positive expectations, is known for its important, and yet contingent impact on electoral behavior and turnout (e.g., Westwood, Messing, and Lelkes 2020). Confidence can increase turnout when inspiring hope and feelings of personal efficacy, but can also cause demobilization and miscalculation when voters feel overconfident about their preferred outcome being secured.

We investigate the impact of religion on confidence about election predictions in the context of the 2019-2020 triple cycle of Israeli elections. The unprecedented event of three successive rounds of elections, predicated by the repeated failure to gather a majority of votes to form a new governing coalition, allows to analyze voters’ predictive confidence within a context of high uncertainty. The Israeli elections were moreover marked by a dynamic of increasing politization of religious matters: Religion moved to the forefront of public discourse following a controversy over the representation of religious parties in the Israeli government, which played a crucial role in Netanyahu's failure to form a coalition in the first round of elections.

Based on a large-scale, seven-waves panel survey, we compare religious and non-religious voters’ confidence about their projected election outcomes among a total number of 1191 participants. We investigate participants’ certitude about the desirability, as well as the likelihood of their expectations, thereby enabling a nuanced analysis of their predictive behavior. In addition to their confidence about specific election outcomes, we asked participants to evaluate how the situation in Israel will be like in the near future. To distinguish between religious and non-religious participants, we use a classification measure which estimates the centrality of institutionalized religion within individual lives. Participants are asked to indicate via closed single-item questions whether they consider themselves as being (1) non-religious, (2) observant, (3) religious or, (4) ultra-orthodox for the Hebrew speaking participants, or very religious for the Arabic speaking participants.

The results show that, although religious voters have a more positive general future outlook, they feel significantly less confident about their predictions of specific election outcomes. Religious voters tend to feel less confident about the likelihood, as well as the desirability of their expectations, whereas non-religious voters tend to develop stronger cognitive and emotional confidence about their predictions. We discuss the results in the light of their relevance for explaining religious electoral behavior. For example, the more moderate degree of probabilistic confidence among religious voters might increase their perceptions of pivotality of the elections and create “meaningful ambiguity” about the election outcomes, thereby potentially securing religious voters’ turnout (Westwood, Messing, and Lelkes 2020). This interpretation connects to findings in the literature on religion and politics which have shown that religion inspires feelings of efficacy and personal capability (McClendon and Riedl 2020). In comparison, the inclination to higher degrees of confidence and enthusiasm among non-religious voters might decrease turnout when voters feel overly confident about a secure outcome, and lead to higher frustration in the event of non-preferred outcomes. Our findings allow for a deeper understanding of the mobilizing impact of religion in politics, opening up the agenda for future research on religion and future oriented confidence.

References

Glazier, Rebecca A. 2015. “Bridging Religion and Politics: The Impact of Providential Religious Beliefs on Political Activity.” Politics and Religion 8(3): 458–87.

Harris, Fredrick C. 1994. “Something within: Religion as a Mobilizer of African-American Political Activism.” The Journal of Politics 56(1): 42–68.

Mattis, Jacqueline S et al. 2004. “Religiosity, Optimism, and Pessimism among African Americans.” Journal of Black Psychology 30(2): 187–207.

McClendon, Gwyneth, and Rachel Beatty Riedl. 2020. “Using Sermons to Study Religions’ Influence on Political Behavior.” Comparative Political Studies, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414020957667.

Westwood, Sean Jeremy, Solomon Messing, and Yphtach Lelkes. 2020. “Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public.” The Journal of Politics 82(4): 1530–44.

Authors

• Maximilian Overbeck, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

• Tali Aharoni, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

• Christian Baden, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

• Michael Freedman, University of Haifa

• Keren Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Hebrew University of Jerusalem