Trading Agreement for Electability? Evidence from the 2020 Democratic Primary

• In Event: Elections and Voting Behavior Virtual Poster Session
  In Virtual Poster Session: Elections and Voting Behavior: Voter Turnout and Choices Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Understanding how people vote is of fundamental importance for assessing the quality of democratic representation. A common trade-off voters face falls between voting for a party or candidate that is ideologically close (proximity voting) and voting for someone with a very good chance of winning (electability voting). While current research holds that both proximity and electability play a role, it does not distinguish between their relative importance. We use a novel survey experiment conducted throughout the 2020 Democratic primary elections to evaluate how ideology and electability trade off in voters’ minds. We show that receiving information about a candidate’s chances of winning significantly affects voters willingness to select any particular candidate. Importantly, this study models just how large the impact of this information is on choices. Additionally, this study fills a prominent gap in the literature by providing causally identified estimates for the value of an endorsement both on ideological or strategic grounds.

Authors

• Alessio Albarello, University of Rochester

• Mayya Komisarchik, University of Rochester