Brexit and Political Values

• In Event: Realignment? How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour

Abstract

In this paper we explore how values dimensions have mapped onto British voting behaviour since the 1980s, and in particular how the Brexit shock fundamentally disrupted this relationship. A major consequence of the Brexit shock was a change in the way the liberal-authoritarian dimension mapped on to party choice. Vote choice in the EU referendum was almost entirely uncorrelated with voters’ left-right values, but it was very highly correlated with liberal-authoritarian values, and adjacent attitudes such as immigration preferences. In 2017 liberal-authoritarian values were equally important to left-right values in determining choice between the Conservatives and Labour. The 2019 General Election saw both a continuation and a reversal of this development. Those on the authoritarian end of the liberal-authoritarian dimension were even more likely to vote for the Conservatives in 2019 compared to 2017. On the liberal end of this dimension, however, there was a slight reversal, with liberal voters once again peeling off to the Liberal Democrats and Greens. In exploring this shift, we provide further elucidation of one of the key mechanisms by which electoral shocks operate – changes to party image. We also explore the potential for continuing conflict on the liberal-authoritarian dimension post-Brexit. Previous research has suggested that British voters care a great deal about ‘second-dimension’ issues, such as the death penalty, that are currently not mobilised as political issues. We explore the potential for future contestation on these issues, and other issues related to the liberal-authoritarian dimension such as globalisation and the environment. In particular, we focus on whether these issues are likely to cut across or reinforce the new pattern of value alignments that has emerged as a result of Brexit.

Author

• Christopher Prosser, Royal Holloway, University of London