Nuclear Operations and Crisis Instability in North Korea

• In Event: Nuclear Weapons, New Technologies, and the Risks of Crisis Escalation

Abstract

In 2017, North Korea successfully tested two intercontinental ballistic missiles and prompted a crisis with the United States that included verbal threats and military displays of force. A lack of clarity in North Korea’s nuclear doctrine exacerbated tensions during this time, causing analysts to worry about the potential for inadvertent escalation. Despite the centrality of nuclear operations to the prospects of crisis escalation, however, scholars have since provided little analysis on the importance of nuclear doctrine for crisis stability in North Korea. This paper evaluates two dimensions of North Korea’s nuclear posture to identify the sources of nuclear operations that increase the likelihood of crisis escalation during militarized disputes. First, the paper analyzes North Korean nuclear command and control systems. This section draws upon publicly available information to describe how North Korea manages its nuclear weapons in peacetime and during crises. The paper shows how North Korea’s nuclear command and control systems create discrete pathways to escalation—especially as North Korea increases the readiness of its arsenal during the transition from peacetime to crisis arsenal management practices—and explains why North Korea employs command and control systems that risk such escalatory potential. Second, the paper analyzes North Korea’s nuclear force structure. Specifically, the paper explains North Korea’s ongoing attempts to diversify its nuclear arsenal and identifies the challenges that these nuclear capabilities pose for nuclear stability. Combined, these sections of the paper provide theoretical insight into the connections between nuclear operations and strategic nuclear stability in North Korea and policy implications for managing the dangers of nuclear escalation.

Author

• Giles David Arceneaux, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs