Barking at the Moon: The Varying Effects of Middle Class Size on Corruption

• In Event: Corruption

Abstract

Large-N studies reveal a strong, negative relationship between income-based measures of the middle class and perceptions of grand corruption. Yet significant cross-country variation exists. Why are some countries with large middle classes nonetheless perceived to be persistently corrupt? This paper argues that the effect of middle-class size on perceptions of grand corruption is moderated by the strength of horizontal accountability institutions, in particular legislative and judicial oversight. Middle-income citizens are more likely than their poor and vulnerable counterparts to learn about corruption, to care about its prevalence, and to punish wrongdoing through the ballot box and nonelectoral sanctions—but their potential to bring about change depends on their ability to form virtuous cycles with institutions tasked with constraining the abuse of power for private gain. Absent this feedback mechanism, middle-income citizens’ discontent with a corrupt political class is likely to degenerate into political apathy or a preference for riskier alternatives in the form of anti-corruption populism. The theory is tested with a dataset of over 180 countries between the years 1998 and 2018. The results lend empirical support to the theory on the virtuous cycle between sociodemographic change (and in particular the expansion of the middle-income segment of the population) and institutional responses to prevailing levels of corruption.

Author

• Raquel Chanto, University of Oxford