Elections at the Discontinuity: Black Candidates in White Districts

• In Event: Race, Party, and Geography

Abstract

Do voters in white districts systematically obstruct minority representation? Despite a great deal of public and scholarly attention, scholars still disagree as to where racial and ethnic minority candidates can succeed electorally. We use a regression discontinuity design on state legislative general elections data from 2018 and 2020 to isolate the effect of a narrowly winning white or Black primary election candidate on the ballot. This design gives us empirical leverage on the very specific question of voters “randomly” being assigned a white or Black candidate at the ballot box. The state legislative data provide variance on district context and partisan election information that is missing at other levels of analysis. The results are essential to looming discussions of redistricting, voting rights, and candidate success in the United States.

Authors

• Bernard L. Fraga, Emory University

• Eric Gonzalez Juenke, Michigan State University

• Paru Shah, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

• Ariel Rebecca White, MIT