The Paradox of Institutionalized Ethno-Regional Opposition Parties

• In Event: Democracy´s Resilience and Stagnation: The Role of Opposition Parties

Abstract

The literature on democratization has posited two conventional wisdoms about the role of political parties in the consolidation of democratic rule. First, it generally holds that democratic consolidation is abetted by that a strong legislative opposition, which strengthens horizontal accountability and makes more likely alternation in power. Second, scholars of democratization tend to agree that ethnic politics undermines democratic stability, as it is associated with clientelist politics and conflict. While observers lament the continued weakness of opposition parties in most African countries, aggregate numbers disguise the fact that in a group of countries, a relatively institutionalized opposition party has emerged since the early 1990s. By our count, 13 opposition parties across the region have received at least 30% of the vote in at least 2 successive elections. This kind of opposition party institutionalization should be a cause for optimism regarding overall democratization. But, at the same time the make-up of the vote suggests that a majority of these parties that have emerged as a viable opposition have benefited from a core ethno-regional vote. Thus, their ability to command at least 30% of the vote in multiple electoral cycles is at least in part related to their ability to mobilize co-ethnics. The combined insights provides a quandary: The emergence of effective electoral competition may also presage the rise of ethnic competition, which again may jeopardize democratic deepening. Our paper investigates the paradoxical nature of the institutionalization of opposition parties across the continent. First, we present the opposition parties´ stories and historical origins, and second, we move to analyze the various circumstances in which the emergence of an effective political opposition may pose dangers for the stability of democratic politics and conditions in which an ethno-regional opposition base may support democracy.

Authors

• Nicolas van de Walle, Cornell University

• Lise Rakner, University of Bergen