A Primary Cause of Weak Parties? Evidence from U.S. Primary Campaigns Before 1972

• In Event: Political Organizations and Parties in Historical Context

Abstract

The volatility of recent US presidential primaries has renewed scrutiny in the broadly participatory nomination system for purportedly empowering candidates who represent intensely active factions within each party. However, such criticism often conflates the effects of weak parties and the effects of public participation. Focusing on the latter, I leverage differences in state party delegate selection methods for national conventions before the 1972 primary reforms to study the effects of primary campaigns on voter preferences and behavior. In general, I find that primaries affect preferences, but do not necessarily radicalize them toward emerging ideological wings of a party. Further, I generally find no effect of primary campaigns on voter behavior in the general election, with the important exception of the period of backlash to the Civil Rights movement. This finding calls for greater attention to social and political context in future studies of party systems.

Author

• Jack Garigliano, Northwestern University