The Economy, the State and War: A Systemic Theory of Conflict

• In Event: Conflict Processes 2 Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Security has played a dominant role in systemic theories of international politics; yet little space is left for systemic economic interactions—why the 40-year omission? Agency for the state as an economic actor is not seen as a relevant consideration because other more privileged structures determine conflict. This theoretical constraint is outmoded in an era of increased economic trans-national economic exchange. This research presents a resource allocation theory of conflict that challenges traditional theories that prioritize security as the paramount systemic variable. We hypothesize global economics as a system level variable exerting tremendous effects on conflict initiation and outcomes. Furthermore, we demonstrate that constraining conditions found in the seminal literature do not rule out the inclusion of our nuanced view of the role of economics interactions.

Because globalization forms a system of resource allocation, we theorize that as resources are more evenly allocated globally, scarcity is reduced. As scarcity is reduced, states have far less incentive for conflict initiation. In short, when state survival is not at risk the probability of conflict is reduced because the cost-to- benefit ratio swings decisively against conflict initiation. To test this theory a Stochastic Actor-Oriented Model (SAOM) using conflict data since 1960 is utilized demonstrating the efficacy of the model. The primary assumption views globalization as a systemic level variable that acts to mitigate the effects of security worries and reduce the probability of conflict initiation. By using a SAOM, actor agency in the economic system is accounted for because conflict events are not assumed to be independent as is the case with more traditional statistical models like Logit or OLS regression. Furthermore, scarcity or the lack of globalization may be isolated as a systemic variable. Additionally, the use of SOAM allows for the isolation of the impact of system structure versus actor behavior or agency.

The theory presented here accounts for systemic disruptions (conflict) and adjusts to such disruptions while taking globalization and systemic evolution into account. By including a nuanced systemic level variable economic this research extends our understanding of international interactions more fully than previous approaches. In short, feedback on security and globalization may be measured and applied to the security/economic dynamic of conflict. In sum, using this approach to analyze the post-Cold War system of international politics, an empirically testable systems theory of international politics may develop thus complimenting the extant literature.

Authors

• Joseph J. St. Marie, University of Southern Mississippi

• Paul Burton, Mastech Infotrellis