The Grand New Party: Changes and Continuities in the Republican Coalition

• In Event: Political Organizations and Parties & Political Networks & American Political Thought & Education Politics and Policy Virtual Poster Session
  In Virtual Poster Session: Political Organizations and Parties Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

This paper, part of a larger project on changes that the Republican Party has been, and is, undergoing, focuses on the Republican coalition and how the regional and demographic profile of the Republican Party has evolved over the last several decades. Much recent punditry has focused on changes in the Republican Party wrought by the candidacy and presidency of Donald Trump (e.g. Nicholas Lemann in The New Yorker, November 2, 2020). This paper tests these claims that the Republican Party viz. the Trump coalition is a recent development. Using individual (survey) and aggregate data, I show what aspects of the Republican Party in the electorate have endured over the last half century and what aspects have changed with recent (last decade) events and candidacies. Rooted in the literatures on party coalitions (e.g. Robert Axelrod), political geography, and realignment, I anticipate a profile of the Republican Party that remains racially and ethnically static (white) while changes are evident in terms of which states are dominated (or not) by Republicans and which regions within states have become the home of Republican voters. The research presented in this paper is important not only for our understanding of the current nature of the Republican coalition but also for assessing theories of political change in light of American federalism, recent events, and prominent political figures who have catalyzed evolution in political affiliations.

Author

• Brian J. Brox, Tulane University