The Impact of Early Voting: The Case of 2020

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Abstract

This paper, part of a larger project on the expanded use of, and impact of, early voting, focuses on the use of early voting in the United States in the November 2020 election. Rooted in an extensive literature on early voting (e.g. Gronke, Stein, Stewart, among others) as well as broader literatures on voting behavior and the impact of institutional arrangements on voting behavior, this paper first focuses on the extent of early voting opportunities in the American states in 2020 with particular attention to those circumstances that causes states who do not normally offer early voting to do so in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper goes on to explore, using individual level data, the distinct experiences faced by early and Election Day voters; I anticipate increased overall use of early voting though a divergence in its use based on party affiliation. Finally, this paper analyzes, using aggregate data, the impact of the use (or not) of early voting on election outcomes (esp. turnout), election administration (esp. accuracy and length of ballot counting), and public confidence in the electoral system. The research presented in this paper is important not only for our understanding of the 2020 election in the United States but also for theoretical development related to the impact of institutions (in this case, the method and timing of casting the ballot) on the behavior of government officials, political elites, and the American mass public.

Author

• Brian J. Brox, Tulane University