Crisis Candidacies: Party Decline and Black/Asian MPs, Party Leaders in the West

• In Event: Political Organizations and Parties & Political Networks & American Political Thought & Education Politics and Policy Virtual Poster Session
  In Virtual Poster Session: Political Organizations and Parties Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Why is Black political representation in the West outside the U.S. far lower than most other non-Western origin ethnic minority groups? How can we explain the complex pattern of when, where, and why Westerns of African, Asian, Maghrebi, Arab, and Latino descent decide to run for, receive nominations for, and win elections for party leader and parliament? Using a new, original database of party crises events, leadership and MP candidates, and party finances this paper argues a combination of internal party crises (electoral losses, scandals, and far-right success) and external party crises such as sudden in ethnic mobilization like Black Lives Matter and sudden risks of losing ethnic voters like British involvement in the Gulf War help explain when and where ethnic representation rises and declines. Contrary to current theories about electing ethnic candidates to the national or local legislatures, the candidacies and election of ethnic party leaders depend less on balancing the loss of far-right leaning voters with the electoral size and significance of ethnic populations, anti-immigration attitudes, party ideology, or history of electing ethnic candidates and more on emerging party crises. If population size and the risk of losing anti-immigrant voters explained candidate nominations, then we would see nearly equal numbers of party leaders, candidates, and MPs from Dutch Moroccan, Turkish, Antillean, and Surinamese communities. Nor is it likely to explain the sudden burst of representation just when support for far-right parties double and tripled in countries like France, Germany, Austria, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

The decision to run and the ability to win nominations and election as party leaders versus MPs depend on an overlapping set of party crises. Where parties suffer historic losses often due to far-right success or internal party strife, Blacks and Asians are far more likely to run for and win leadership contests. Their candidacies for leadership are accelerated by intra-country, neighboring country, and small-to-large party contagion if the previously elected ethnic party leaders reverse their party’s fortunes. MP candidates depend not only on electoral losses and internal party scandals, but, more on sudden risks of losing ethnic voters by left parties or center and right parties perceiving sudden opportunities to gain ethnic voters. These risks and opportunities occur most often with the sudden mobilization of or rise in disaffection among ethnic minorities inside and outside the party like the Black Lives Matter movement, anti-Gulf war protests in Britain, the rise British Black Section in the Labour Party. Until the recent Black Lives Matter movement and the 1980’s British Black Section, parties rarely perceived a high risk of losing or gaining Black voters even when such risks and potential existed. Using new, original database of party crisis events, ethnic mobilization events, leader and MPs candidates, intraparty rules, party finances, and election results, this paper links the opportunities for non-Western ethnic minorities to become party leaders and MPs in the West to severe electoral, financial, internal party crises, far-right party success, interparty contagion, and sudden ethnic mobilization and disaffection using textual analysis, social network analysis, and multilevel event regression analysis of twenty Western countries.

Author

• Kimberly L. Shella, Southern Illinois University Carbondale