Piety and Politics: Electoral Consequences of Religious Gatherings in India

• In Event: International History and Politics & Science, Technology and Environmental Policy Virtual Poster Session
  In Virtual Poster Session: State Behavior Throughout History: Diverse Factors of Influence Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Mass gatherings of worshippers are central to religious practice worldwide. To date, little research has explored their impact on electoral politics. Do such events enhance support for religious parties in settings where secularist norms are weakly enshrined, and if so, by what mechanisms? We theorize that religious parties engage in "platform co-optation," exploiting such gatherings to enlist party cadres and engage in campaign outreach in front of a captive audience, which in turn yield ballot-box dividends in proximate regions. To test this claim, we estimate the impact of the multisite Kumbh Mela festival in India on outcomes in all national elections held between 1951 and 2019, leveraging the astrologically determined, exogenous timing of the festival relative to the electoral calendar. In line with expectations, greater geographic and temporal exposure of constituencies to Kumbh Mela events significantly increases the subsequent vote share received by Hindu nationalist parties. Further tests substantiate the hypothesis that these parties use the festivals as spaces to bolster their organizational strength. We find less evidence that the Melas induce widespread social identity change, nor do they appear to exacerbate communal violence. Our study adds to the burgeoning literature on how private religious observance and formal politics intersect, and highlights a new pathway by which nascent confessional parties broaden their reach and break into mainstream politics.

Authors

• Siddhartha Baral

• Gareth Nellis, University of California, San Diego

• Michael Weaver, The University of British Columbia