Punctuated Equilibrium in China: Text Reuse Methods to Measuring Policy Change

• In Event: Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Comparative Political Institutions

Abstract

The Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) holds that long periods of relative policy stability
alternate with abrupt policy change. However, this theory is largely based on research
conducted in democracies. It is therefore unclear whether policy change in nondemocracies
also follows this pattern. In response, this paper measures policy change in China, the world’s
largest nondemocracy. In the absence of long-term, national-level reliable budget data, we
apply a text reuse approach that compares the textual difference between successive versions
of the same law, which results in a change index for all national level laws amended by the
National People’s Congress during 1954-2016. We find that policy change in China is mostly
incremental as most laws score low on the change index. Only a small number of laws show a
high change index, which reflects punctuations. We also find that (a) the more amendments a
law goes through, the bigger the chance that change is incremental; and (b) the longer period
of time a law is unchanged, the larger the chance of punctuated change. Although our focus is
on measuring amendments in national level laws in China, the same computational tools can
be used to study contradictions between central and local level laws, change in draft laws
during deliberation by the National People’s Congress, and the evolution of lower-level
legislation.

Authors

• Annemieke van den Dool, Duke Kunshan University

• Erik Mattias van den Dool Enebjörk