Class Decline and Far Right Party Support in Western Europe

• In Event: Support for Populism and the Far Right

Abstract

How does class affect far right party support? A large body of literature focuses on the objective and subjective factors that drive individuals from different classes to support the far right, reporting significant variations across countries and across time. Empirically, the far right’s electoral support base is particularly diverse, with parts of the working class highly likely to support the far right in some cases, while lower middle class individuals are the most likely far right supporters in others. This article explains this puzzling variation by distinguishing empirically and theoretically between class location and social mobility. We argue that class location affects absolute deprivation whereas declining class mobility increases relative deprivation. The combination of class location and mobility together shape the different forms of deprivation feeding far right party support. Analysing several waves of European Social Survey (ESS) data with a diagonal model from sociology literature on class mobility, we show that both class origins and destinations matter. Our findings suggest that individuals in classes that experience social decline are more likely to vote for the far right. Working class voters whose parents come from higher social classes, experience both relative and absolute deprivation, and become highly likely to vote for the far right. However, working class individuals with parents from similar origins are no longer the most likely to vote for the far right, especially when compared to individuals in lower middle classes that have experienced greater social decline. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that the effect varies depending on other socio-demographic characteristics, most notably education and age. Taken together, these findings contribute to ongoing debates about the relative importance of economic insecurity and class location in the rise of the far right across Western Europe.

Authors

• Daphne Halikiopoulou, University of York

• Tim Vlandas, University of Oxford

• Alexi Gugushvili, University of Edinburgh