Conspiracy Theories and Support for Democracy: Experimental Evidence from Brazil

• In Event: Conspiracy Theories and Public Opinion

Abstract

Do conspiracy theories about politics undermine support for democratic norms? While conspiracy theories are often treated as dangerous and undesirable in politics, we still lack a good understanding of whether they pose a significant threat to democracy. Most academic studies about conspiracy theories in politics focus on the psychological factors that predispose people to believe in these narratives. The literature on the effects of conspiracy theories on political behavior is still thin and yields contradictory results. Our study contributes to this growing body of knowledge by investigating whether the dissemination of conspiracy theories undermines support for democracy. We hypothesize that conspiracy theories that portray a political group as the malevolent plot organizer will affect voters' support for democratic norms because they decrease individuals' sense of external efficacy. We designed a survey experiment conducted in Brazil to address our research question. We manipulate three existing conspiracy theories about the same event: the stabbing of then-candidate Jair Bolsonaro during the 2018 presidential campaign. This study seeks to promote scientific knowledge on the political implications of conspiracy theories in developing democracies, where these stories may have particularly disruptive consequences. Furthermore, it contributes to the literature on political misinformation by identifying the specific features of conspiracy theories that may have detrimental consequences for politics.

Authors

• Marcelle Amaral, UFPE

• Lucas Borba, Vanderbilt University

• Maria Eduarda Lessa

• Vanessa Lira

• Nara Pavão, UFPE