Agricultural Modernization and Rural Conflict: Evidence from Brazil

• In Event: Political Economy of Rural Politics

Abstract

How do wage and employment shocks affect the likelihood of conflict? Conventional wisdom suggests that when jobs disappear, workers have greater incentives to engage in contentious mobilization. Examining the case of Brazil, we show that adoption of new agricultural technology that reduces returns to labor - specifically, mechanical tractors - contributes to rural conflict. Mechanization’s impact is distinct from the effects of other factors associated with unrest such as nearby unrest, landholding inequality, rainfall, or commodity price shocks. However, its effect is mitigated by environmental factors that shape the demand for agricultural labor such as the suitability of the terrain for mechanization and of the soil and climate for adoption of capital-intensive crops, as well as the relative availability of alternative employment. Findings shed light on unanticipated political consequences of the Green Revolution and illuminate a mechanism potentially shaping rural conflict elsewhere.

Authors

• David J. Samuels, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities

• Henry Thomson, Arizona State University