What Explains Latina/o/x Support for Trump in South Texas?

• In Event: Latest Trends in Latina, Latino, and Latinx Politics

Abstract

Latino support shifted to Donald Trump in 2020. Much of this movement was driven by Latinos residing in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas–an impoverished border region where 1.3 million people reside, 90% of whom are Latino. In other parts of the country, such as Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois, New Mexico, Nevada, and New York, Latinos supported Joe Biden by a margin of 3 to 1. But in the Rio Grande Valley, along with Miami–Dade, with its demographically unique mix of Latinos, Mr. Biden failed to make any inroads with Latinos. Why? The paper offers an in-depth examination of the factors motivating Latino support for Mr. Trump.

We use a survey of Latinos, fielded by the University of Texas–Rio Grande Valley, to explore the effect of religiosity, sexism, anti-immigrant sentiment, economic anxiety, and group consciousness, on support for Mr. Trump in the Rio Grande Valley. The local politics of Rio Grande Valley is also unique, with a series of strongmen dominating the area for much of its history. Thus, we also explore the effect of support for authoritarianism on voting for Mr. Trump.

Authors

• Natasha Altema McNeely, University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley

• Dongkyu Kim, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley

• Mi-son Kim, University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley

• Rene R. Rocha, University of Iowa