Cooperation in Multi-Dyadic Conflicts

• In Event: Networks, Governance, and Cooperation

Abstract

Our project contributes to better understanding of civil conflict, especially in multi-dyadic contexts, by theoretically and empirically evaluating an underexplored interaction between rebel groups and governments: cooperation. We treat cooperation as an iterative process that reveals unique information about combatant credibility that cannot be revealed on the battlefield. We argue that by revealing this information, the nature and outcome of past cooperation shapes future opportunities for cooperation, conflict resolution, and conflict, both within the focal dyad as well as other dyads in the conflict. To evaluate our theoretical expectations, we will create the Cooperation in Civil War: Multi-Dyad Conflicts (CCW-MC) which will cover 12 countries and 142 government-rebel group dyads across 1,572 dyad-years. These data will include small acts of cooperation as well as major acts of cooperation. They will include successful acts of cooperation as well as attempts at cooperation that failed or were rebuffed. Finally, they will include requests for cooperation as well as realized cooperation. These data will, therefore, capture the full evolution of dyadic cooperation from initial requests to implementation. Using these data, we create measures of direct cooperative history (incorporating the nature and outcome of previous cooperation in a given government-rebel group dyad) and indirect cooperative history (using information from other government-rebel dyads in the country). We will then test our expectations, exploring how the history of cooperation influences the prospects for subsequent cooperation and conflict, conceptualizing conflict resolution as a dynamic process with roots long predating the start of formal negotiations.

Authors

• Elizabeth J. Menninga, University of Iowa

• Alyssa Prorok, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign