Opening the “Black-Box” of Electoral Volatility at Party-Level

• In Event: Shifts in Party Ideology

Abstract

The objective is to explore the connection between the proportional electoral system (PR) and party organisations as key institutional determinants for electoral volatility at the party-level from cross-party, national, and temporal perspectives (Gherghina, 2013). We developed an integrated model to address two questions: 1) Do candidate-centred electoral systems impact the development of stable electoral support? 2) If the electoral system has any impact, does it occur directly or mediated by party organisations? A considerable body of literature on electoral systems emphasises that candidate-centred electoral systems – which encourage candidates to cultivate personal instead of party reputations – promote intraparty competition and unrooted party organisations (Carey and Shugart, 1995; Ames, 2001). Nonetheless, there is little comparative empirical analysis on how party organisations have strategically answered to changes in electoral rules toward institutional personalisation (Mainwaring, 1999). Using V-Party (2020) and V-Dem (2020) databases, we selected and analysed 600 parties in 48 countries covering third-wave democracies, post-communist countries, and the most extensive proportional democracies in Europe (Western and Eastern Europe) and Americas between 1989 and 2019 -- large-N cross-national comparative analysis (Janda, 1980). Based on panel models, we found that the candidate-centred electoral system is negatively related to developing strong ties between parties and the electorate, but only in party organisations with low party strength, intraparty cohesion, financial linkages with non-party groups. When the decision-making process concentrates power in the hands of powerful party elites, they can solve coordination problems and mitigate intraparty conflicts and personalisation consequences.

Author

• Luis Gustavo Locatelli, Getulio Vargas Fundation (FGV)