Identity and the Structure of Climate Risk Preferences

• In Event: Unpacking the International Political Economy of Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change involves risks to both climate-vulnerable and fossil fuel-reliant industries. I argue that the racial makeup of an industry serves as a heuristic for evaluating its long-run viability in the face of such “climate risks.” In preregistered surveys of diverse samples of U.S. voters, I experimentally vary the racial compositions of climate-vulnerable and fossil fuel-reliant industries. I find that voters are more pessimistic about industries that draw workers from groups seen as politically marginalized, expecting those industries to be denied government support as climate risks manifest. Analogously, voters are more confident in industries tied to subjectively privileged groups, believing politicians will devote more effort to ensuring their survival. Perceived biases in government thus threaten to generate a climatic moral hazard: workers and investors in “privileged” but threatened industries may choose to remain in place and accept mounting climate risks, pressing the government to come to their aid as physical damages grow and decarbonization accelerates. These findings illustrate how identity divisions shape mass climate politics and exacerbate climate risks to economies.

Author

• Noah Zucker, Princeton University