Partisanship, Blame Attribution, and Federalism: Evidence from a Panel Study

• In Event: Federalism, Governance, and Accountability

Abstract

When catastrophe strikes, who is to blame? In times of crisis, people direct their fear and anger towards those they deem responsible for upheaval and suffering. In liberal democracies, where government is expected to effectively manage threats, politicians are often the target of popular ire, criticized for incompetence, indifference, or opportunism. Yet in a federal system such as the United States, with its layers of national, state, and local authority, which politicians are to blame and why is often far from obvious.

While two alternate research streams—one detailing theories of blame in times in times of crisis, and another advancing the theory of partisan federalism—both suggest that political partisanship impacts the level of government to which an individual assigns blame, they diverge with respect to how and why. Here, theories of blame attribution detail that individuals have distinct preferences regarding the level of government that should be responsible for resolving policy problems—with Democrats favoring policymaking at the national level, and Republicans favoring policymaking at lower levels—and are more likely to assign blame to said levels when policies (or lack thereof) fail to protect them from harm’s way. Conversely, partisan federalism theory suggests that citizens will simply assign blame to the level of government which is controlled by their disfavored political party. Past research on blame attribution in times of crisis, which largely relies on cross-sectional observational data, produces results consistent with both theories. For instance, Hurricane Katrina serves as the central case for most recent literature on blame attribution: a case in which subnational government (the governor, and big city mayors) were Democrats and the federal government (the president) was a Republican. The well-established finding that Republicans blamed state and local government while Democrats blamed the federal government during this crisis, does little to clarify the causal link.

To evaluate these competing theories, we deployed a nationally representative panel survey (N=12,037) where citizens were asked to assign blame to various levels of government in response to the nation’s failed COVID-19 response. Respondents were first surveyed during the Trump presidency, and again during the Biden presidency. We find support for both theories. In-line with blame attribution theory, Democrats place blame at the federal level (relative to lower levels) at a significantly and substantively higher rate than Republicans in both waves. Consistent with theories of partisan federalism, however, the rate by which individuals assign blame to the federal government increases in wave two among Republicans and decreases in wave two among Democrats.

Authors

• Jack M Mewhirter, University of Cincinnati

• Matthew Joseph Uttermark, Binghamton University -- SUNY

• Rebecca Sanders, University of Cincinnati

• Danielle McLaughlin, University of Cincinnati