Natural Resources and Conflict in Post-coup Myanmar

• In Event: Political Mobilization through Violence and Non-violence

Abstract

Post-coup governments are inherently precarious: sanctions from trading partners who supported the old regime, uncertainty about future policies, and disruptions to day-to-day life all undermine growth and prosperity, which a new regime relies on to buy loyalty from troops and gain legitimacy from citizens. How do post-coup regimes manage to survive?

We examine protected forest areas before and after the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, finding that they experience a considerable differential increase in violence in the post-coup era. We also examine patterns of deforestation during the pre-democracy, democracy and post-coup era. We find evidence that high-value forestry zones where teak wood is located are at the center of post-coup violence. We also find that there is a complex relationship between democratization, backsliding and environmental degradation: deforestation appears to be associated with economic growth during the democratic period, although high-value deforestation also increases post-coup as the regime seeks revenue.

Authors

• Renard J Sexton, Emory University

• Don S Grasse, University of Southern California