Bayesian Case Studies in International and Comparative Politics

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel showcases early career scholars employing qualitative Bayesian inference in case-study research. The papers span both international relations and comparative politics, with topics ranging from the geopolitics of health aid provision (Inouye) and wartime decision-making by US presidents (Milonopoulos), to anti-corruption policy in South Korea (Kim), and regulation in the US and Europe (Posch and Pasquier). The Bayesian methodology closely mirrors how qualitative scholars tend to naturally approach inference, while affording greater analytic rigor and a systematic framework for evaluating how strongly available evidence supports the leading hypothesis over rivals (Fairfield & Charman 2022, CUP). We hope to stimulate a discussion about how Bayesian reasoning can be most effectively incorporated into qualitative research.

Sub Unit

• Division 46: Qualitative Methods

Individual Presentations

• Politics of Provision: Using Aid to Preserve, Pressure, Protect, and Peel - Rikio Inouye, Princeton University

• Inherited Interventions: Presidents, Military Advisors, & Wartime Decisions - Theo Milonopoulos, Naval War College

• The Role of Enforcement Expectations in Anti-Corruption Policymaking - Adoree T Kim, Cornell University

• Beneficially Constraining Autonomous Vehicle Regulation in the US & EU - Konrad Posch, University of San Francisco

• International Response to EU Chemical Regulations: From Challenge to Adjustment - Richard Pasquier

Chair

• Andrew Bennett Georgetown University

Discussants

• Tasha A. Fairfield London School of Economics

• Andrew Bennett Georgetown University