When Does Repression Produce Backlash? A Global Analysis

• In Event: Repression and Dissent: New Directions in Research

Abstract

When does government repression deter future dissent and when does it engender citizen backlash against the regime? A large body of research has come to seemingly contradictory outcomes on whether repression works or backfires. Yet, we argue that it is more enlightening to ask under what conditions government repression works or doesn’t. To do so, we employ a novel approach, centering our analysis on locations rather than campaigns. We examine the conditions under which different locations (cities, rural areas, etc.) experience repression and then measure whether citizens rise up following government crackdowns. We draw on multiple sources of geocoded event data, compiling a new dataset that incorporates critical elements of time, geography, and political events. This study makes a significant contribution to the study of repression by re-centering its analysis on questions of conditions for backlash.

Authors

• Jacob S. Lewis, Washington State University

• Brandon Ives, Seoul National University