Pushing beyond the Homeland: Why Only Some Secessionist Groups Fight Broadly

• In Event: Third Parties and Conflict Actors

Abstract

Why do some secessionists fight the government only within their claimed homelands, while others push into the regime’s territory? Despite much scholarship on rebel movement and strategy, few scholars have explained secessionist strategy. Those that do expect secessionists to fight within their homelands. Yet, our novel dataset demonstrates that nearly 50% of secessionists push into the regime’s territory. Our formal model demonstrates that such advances are risky for secessionists but become more likely when mediators are present. This third party involvement provides incentive for the rebels to demonstrate their ability to strike at the government’s constituencies as negotiations begin. Statistical analysis of all secessionist movements since 1989 demonstrates the correlation between mediation and rebel advances outside their claimed homelands. A case study of the Kosovo Liberation Army highlights our proposed mechanisms.

Authors

• Richard Pell Jordan, Baylor University

• Gary Uzonyi, University of Strathclyde