The Kids Aren't Alright: Youth Pessimism, Political Behavior and Climate Change

• In Event: Combating Climate Skepticism and Pessimism

Abstract

Millennial and Gen Z cohort members are the first to be born into an information environment in which an increasingly bleak climate future is discussed in increasingly likely terms. What are the implications of this generational difference on public opinion, politically relevant beliefs, and political behavior? Specifically, we investigate generational differences in optimism about the future, trust in institutions, and political participation using a combination of observational data and a survey experiment to answer these questions. We show that, while young people are generally the most optimistic age cohort historically, they have grown less so over the past 50 years. This decline in general optimism about the future coincides with declining trust in political institutions, yet -- paradoxically -- increased levels of political participation. To identify the climate future mechanism for these patterns, we combine a natural experiment in California with a bespoke survey experiment. The natural experiment geolocates survey respondents to zip codes and merges these data with spatial data on the spread of smoke from wildfires, allowing us to compare our outcomes of interest among those directly exposed to wildfire smoke to those who were not. The survey experiment randomly assigns young survey respondents to primes about climate future, and compares self-reported attitudes and behaviors among those in the treatment and control groups. Taken together, our findings present a bleak picture of the mental and emotional condition of the youngest generation of humans, while also suggesting some reasons for hope due to their increased political participation.

Authors

• James Hodgdon Bisbee, Vanderbilt University

• Sofia Berrospi, Vanderbilt University