The Effect of “Wolf-Warrior” Diplomacy on Domestic and International Audience

• In Event: Reputation and Resolve

Abstract

Title: Pride and Prejudice: The Dual Effect of “Wolf-Warrior” Diplomacy on Domestic and International Audience – Machine Learning and Cross-national Experimental Evidence

Recent surveys show that China’s international image remains at or near historic lows in most countries worldwide (Silver 2021). Given this state of affairs, one might expect Chinese diplomats to focus on improving its image and thereby winning back international audiences’ hearts. However, Chinese diplomats are breaking with their tradition of pursuing careful diplomacy. Today, they are more likely to behave like “wolf warriors” and respond to criticism with inflammatory and belligerent rhetoric. Accordingly, “wolf-warrior” diplomacy (WWD) has dominated the discourses of mainstream media and has come under heavy criticism abroad. This foreign policy shift presents an interesting puzzle: Why do Chinese leaders publicly antagonize foreign audiences when we believe that the goal of diplomacy is to improve relations between countries?
To explain when and why WWD can benefit the Chinese government and how WWD influences US-China relations, this dissertation asks two questions. First, does WWD increase the Chinese public’s support for their government and, if so, through what mechanisms does it shape public opinion? I propose a psychological explanation based upon social identity theory (SIT), which contends that individuals draw comparisons between the in-group and out-group to maintain self-esteem (Tajfel and Turner 1986). I argue that the Chinese government uses WWD to foster in-group attachment which increases stability and support for the government. WWD involves three major discourses. The first discourse emphasizes past humiliations. Chinese diplomats reference the “Century of Humiliation” (between 1840-1950) to reinforce prejudice toward the out-group and mobilize support for the Chinese government. The second is the diplomatic discourse of pride. With this rhetoric, Chinese diplomats highlight China’s recent economic and scientific accomplishments to foster in-group self-esteem. The third is a defamatory discourse against the out-group intended to amplify prejudice toward the out-group and motivate rallying and cohesion in the in-group.
To test this argument, I conducted a nationwide survey experiment in China to test WWD’s effects on the Chinese public’s support for the government. My survey experiment in China reveals that first, humiliation, pride and defamatory discourses significantly increase the Chinese public’s support for their government. Second, humiliation and defamatory discourses significantly increase the Chinese public’s support for more aggressive foreign policies toward the US, but pride discourses do not lead to higher public support for aggression.
The second question of this dissertation asks: How do international audiences interpret and respond to WWD? The structure of international diplomacy creates a two-level game situation where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) must simultaneously speak to both domestic and international audiences. Due to the tension in perspectives between these audiences, the same message will have contrasting effects between the two. WWD, on the one hand, fosters in-group unity and rallies domestic support for the Chinese government. This very language, one the other hand, reinforces international audiences’ out-group prejudice and evokes a feeling of threat. Consequently, international audiences will support aggressive foreign policies toward China. To sum up, I expect that WWD has a dual effect: increased domestic security for the regime and heightened tension at the international level.
To test this two-level game scenario, I conducted an identical set of experimental surveys to American and Chinese participants. Consistent with my expectations, the results of my survey experiment in the US shows that “wolf-warrior” rhetoric antagonizes international audiences and significantly boosts the US public’s support for aggressive foreign policies toward China.
By examining Beijing’s foreign policy strategy shift from a cautious and low-key diplomacy to “wolf-warrior” diplomacy, this project contributes to growing literature about the way diplomatic rhetoric shapes domestic politics and international conflicts. First, international diplomacy campaigns which, on their face, are targeted at a foreign audience can in fact be a domestic instrument, aiming at a leader’s home audience, to protect the national security. Considering that maintaining national unity and cohesion is essential for China's national security and the one-party political system, Chinese leaders are expected to carry on “wolf-warrior” diplomacy. Second, efforts to increase the CCP’s domestic position, also increase international hostility. As a result, Chinese diplomatic rhetoric will become the US elites’ resources to mobilize American public at home and maneuver diplomatically abroad to attract allies, thereby competing against China.

Author

• Weifang Xu, Florida State University