Measuring the Evolution of Cyber-Enabled Influence Operations

• In Event: Cyber & Emerging Technologies: Empirical Approaches for Bridging Data and Theory

Abstract

What does the evolution of cyber-enabled influence operations look like? Despite the popular focus on disinformation, extant research shows that adversaries use truthful information to sway domestic electorates. While truthful information about historical events and figures is often used in such cases, less is known about the evolution of cyber-enabled influence operations over time. Do CEIOs try to sway events on the ground, or are they in turn influenced by domestic events, such as local protests? During the 2016 US presidential election, 126 million Americans were reportedly exposed to Russia's efforts to influence the U.S. election on Facebook. Indeed, to the extent that such efforts shape political outcomes, they may prove far more consequential than other, more flamboyant forms of cyber conflict. We track the evolution of Russian operations on Facebook to evaluate how different topics and themes emerge over time and across different target groups by using the text of the Russian-bought ads themselves.

Authors

• Jelena Vicic, Leiden University

• Erik Gartzke, UCSD