What’s in It for Us? Rebel Group-Civilian Embeddedness as a Ceasefire Incentive

• In Event: Rebel-Civilian Relations: Constituency and Clientelism from War to Peace

Abstract

What incentives do rebel groups have in signing ceasefires, especially when ceasefires tend to work in the state actor’s advantage? The recent scholarly conversation on ceasefires during civil wars has zoned in on its utility for state actors. State actors can abuse the terms of peace to inflict damage upon rebel groups, engage in state building exercises to marginalize rebel-group spheres of influence, or re-stock arms and supplies to further tilt the balance of power against rebel groups. On the other hand, ceasefires can offer intangible benefits to rebel groups, which can serve as attractive incentives for signing a ceasefire with the state despite the potential harm caused by doing so. By examining ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) active in the Myanmar civil war, I argue that rebel groups consider opportunities to improve their embeddedness with the civilian community as a significant ceasefire incentive, aiming to enhance their image as a political actor rivaling the state to its civilian constituents. Indeed, EAOs that signed bilateral ceasefires with the Myanmar military actively sought to utilize the ceasefire to enhance their embeddedness with the civilian community through public relations campaigns, consultation exercises, as well as the scaling up of non-violent activities such as public services provision and business operations in the formal market. By doing so, EAOs succeeded in greatly enhancing their image as legitimate political actors during the ceasefire, some of which ultimately consolidated in a greater level of public support and organizational strength once they returned to war after the 2021 military coup. To make this argument, I draw from qualitative data collected through field research with EAO cadres on the Thai-Myanmar border, collected between March 2022 - March 2023.

Author

• Jae Park, University of Toronto