Trapped by Climate Change? Vulnerable Populations and Migration in Bangladesh

• In Event: Climate Change and Migration Flows

Abstract

While the academic literature agrees that climate change will alter migration patterns, it has been inconclusive about how it will do so. For examining how environmental changes translate into migration, one needs to consider both migration aspirations and the ability to move of affected populations. We investigate which factors condition whether environmental changes lead to actual moves by collecting primary survey panel data of 1700 households residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh. We assess baseline migration aspirations of a population at risk of being affected by riverbank erosion and floods. Re-interviewing the same population after erosion and floods have materialized, we can assess whose aspirations turned into actual moves and whose did not. We find that migration materializes only for a small fraction of those who had expressed a desire to move at baseline. Socioeconomic status and social networks are important conditioning factors influencing an individual’s ability to move. Our findings have significant policy implications since they provide guidance how to support the most vulnerable parts of populations at risk of becoming trapped in unfavorable environmental conditions.

Author

• Jan Michael Freihardt, ETH Zurich